Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new analysis showing that the damage to air travel from COVID-19 extends into the medium-term, with long-haul / international travel being the most severely impacted. Quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A risk-based layered approach of globally harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart.
Air travel scenarios
IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios.
Long-Haul Travel Impact will be Longer Lasting
When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel.
Avoid Quarantine Measures
IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent air travelers showed that
IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:
“CART has a very big job to do with little time to waste. It must find an agreement among states on the measures needed to control COVID-19 as aviation re-starts. And it must build confidence among governments that borders can be opened to travelers because a layered approach of measures has been properly implemented globally. IATA and the whole industry support this critical work,” said de Juniac.
Read Alexandre de Juniac's remarks
Check the Outlook for air travel in the next 5 years report (pdf), presentation by Brian Pearce, IATA's Chief Economist
Jim Hepple is an Assistant Professor at the University of Aruba and is Managing Director of Tourism Analytics.