COVID-19: How long will the impact last? The experience of 9/11.

Many airline CEOs have said the current situation is “worse than 9/11”
So, how long did it take the Caribbean to recover from 9/11 and can we learn from that experience.
Using a 12-month rolling average to track monthly stopover arrivals the data show: -

• It took Aruba about three years to reach the previous peak average monthly arrival total achieved in 2000 with tourist expenditures showing a similar pattern.
• The Bahamas also took three years for arrival volume to recover but took a further hit in September 2004 from Hurricane Frances.
• Barbados took three years.
• Cancun’s foreign hotel registrations took just under three years but took a further major hit from Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
• The Cayman Islands never did recover from 9/11 and took a further major hit in September 2004 from Hurricane Ivan.
• Jamaica took just over two years to recover.
• The United States Virgin Islands took almost three years to recover.
• According to STR data the Caribbean hotel sector saw average room occupancy fall from 66% in 2000 to 61% in 2001 and not exceed the 2000 number until 2004. ADR showed little change between 2000 and 2003 as did RevPar and both only began to show signs of growth in 2004.
• The repercussions of COVID19 could well trigger a recession.

If the same pattern applies as a result of the impact caused by COVID19 it could take the region between two/three years before it reaches visitor arrivals and hotel performance numbers achieved in 2019, probably closer to three years.

The detailed analysis is presented in the attached PDF file

impact_of_9_11_on_caribbean_tourism_march_16_2020.pdf
File Size:	387 kb
File Type:	pdf

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